It’s no secret as to how odds on any sporting event or happening are calculated. The more people that place money on a certain team to win a game, a tournament, or who’ll be the new manager at a club will all see the odds lessen.
Pretty relevant for all of us right now, given we’re at the business end of the season. Sure, there’s still a treble to be secured, fingers crossed, but the Champions League qualifiers will come around quickly and it would be nice to know who’s going to be in charge in the dugout, come the first game of season 2019/2020.
That said, just because someone is first, second or third favourite for the new manager’s job, it doesn’t mean they’ll get it, it’s that more people have parted with their cash on who they think will get it. Odds go down, odds go up, what’s the saying, there are no poor bookmakers?
Depending on your turf accountant of choice, there will be slightly different odds for each man, but isn’t it all the same names that are mentioned? Sticking money on Neil Lennon at 8/11 isn’t going to make you rich, but is the current incumbent the man you want to see in charge at Celtic Park next season? David Moyes at 5/2? Isn’t it funny how managers come out of the woodwrok to profess their interest in a job in Scotland when they’re unemployed and can’t get anything down south? Owen Coyle anyone?
Rafael Benítez at 6/1? Throwing money away surely? For a man who’s been successful previously and who’s been in charge at clubs such as Liverpool, Napoli, Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Chelsea, you’d be forgiven at first glance for blasting the board not to go after him. On a reported £80k per week though and who never seems to be falling out publicly with Mike Ashley about his transfer budget, can you seriously see it? Admittedly you’d get greater odds on Eliza Dushku leaving her husband to be with me, but aren’t the chances about the same?
A quid on Roberto Martínez at 7/1 will get you the princely sum of £8. Yep, his wife is Scottish but he’s the manager of the number one ranked international side in the world, with a European Championships to come next year.
Steve Clarke at 10/1 has been rightly lauded for the work he’s done with Kilmarnock since he’s been there. Just throwing it out there for discussion, but given Lennon has been slaughtered in certain quarters for the team’s recent style of play, could Clarke adapt his own style to a team who have much higher expectations every season than the Ayrshire side?
Scout turned manager, André Villas-Boas at 12/1? The style of play might be good but he tends not to stick about clubs for too long. Would two years of league success be enough to justify the financial outlay it would need to get him to Glasgow? You can have David Wagner for the same odds as AVB, although the man who got Huddersfield relegated has been heavily linked with the coach’s job of Bundesliga club Schalke.
Did you ever envisage a day where you could have José Mourinho and Michael O’Neill available at the same odds of 14/1? Mourinho seems fanciful, although he’s probably arrogant enough to welcome the challenge of being the man to make it 10. Is Michael O’Neill similar to Clarke, with all due respect of doing well with lesser players than those who train at Lennoxtown currently?
Alex Neil or Martin O’Neill at 20/1? We’re all entitled to our opinions but you’d imagine there’d be some uproar within the support if the club appointed a manager from Preston NE. For the people that don’t want Lennon coming back, does the same rule apply for O’Neill? He’s also just taken the job at Forest so you’d imagine it unlikely.
As with any betting patterns, it tends to get a bit crazy at points.
Chris Coleman, Graham Potter, Henrik Larsson, Marco Rose, Mark Hughes, Patrick Vieira, Paul Lambert, Phillip Cocu, Slaven Bilic, Steffen Baumgart can all be had at 25/1. Coleman is managing in China and would be on a hefty chunk of change surely? Potter has just started in Swansea and surely has designs on reaching the EPL? He also has a terrible haircut! Larsson would be nothing more than an emotional appointment, wouldn’t he? Marco Rose? Maybe all bookies aren’t poor but they’re not all clever, with Borussia Mönchengladbach already having announced him as their new coach.
Jack Ross, John Kennedy and Roy Keane can all be had at 33/1. Sunderland are in the League Two playoffs so assuming they’re successful, he’d be keen to keep going. It might be churlish but is Kennedy experienced enough or ready for the challenge of securing the 10? Keane has said no before, should he be bodyswerved?
Derek McInnes and Frank Lampard at 40/1. The former might kick off civil war in the city, and the latter would see the SMSM salivate at the thought of him going up against Gerrard. Thanks but no thanks?
There are a ton of prospective managers available at 50/1. Antonio Conte, Arsène Wenger, Claudio Ranieri has only just been appoined as Roma boss but his contract runs out in the summer. Gordon Strachan, would the fans have similar thoughts as to a Lennon or O’Neill return? Guus Hiddink missed out on the job due to the intervention of Dermot Desmond when O’Neill was appointed. Would he leave China, even to have a conversation? Marcelo Bielsa safely has Leeds in the playoffs for promotion to the EPL, so you’d imagine he’d be a no. Paul Hartley or Sam Allardyce? Please no.
It’s all subjective, and whoever gets the job might not even be on the list of names mentioned. Who do you want? Should it be a ‘Celtic’ man or should the board just go for the best man available? Are the two mutually exclusive?